Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
814 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016

Valid 00Z Thu Jun 16 2016 - 00Z Thu Jun 23 2016

Models maintain the strong and large surface high north of the
islands through about Saturday before weakening slightly and
drifting northward. The result should be continued moderate to
strong trades with isolated windward showers until the high begins
to weaken. The model spread becomes significant by the middle of
next week, with the 06z gfs and 06z gefs mean allowing a portion
of the closed low over the eastern Pacific to drift westward
beneath the upper ridge, while the 00z ecmwf and its ensembles
maintain the low farther east. The gfs has been more consistent
across the central and northern Pacific the last couple days
compared to the ecmwf while the 06z gfs might be too strong near
the western Aleutians late in the period, which would allow the
low to drift more west than might otherwise occur. For these
reasons, the gfs or gefs mean are generally preferred, yet
incorporated with a small amount of the more eastern ecmwf.

James