Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
822 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Valid 00Z Sat Jun 25 2016 - 00Z Sat Jul 02 2016

The main influence for the forecast appears to be the weakening of
the trades as the forecast proceeds from days 1 thru 7. A
sprawling 1036 mb high near 40N 165W is expected to gradually but
continually weaken by Sunday and Monday to around 1028 mb as a
strong upper ridge is slowly eroded as short wave energy to the
north crosses the top periphery of the ridge and troughing over
the northern Pacific drops southward effectively shrinking and
weakening the ridge.  Towards the end of the forecast, a strong
upper low moving eastward from the east coast of Asia continues to
effectively squash the ridge as well.  While the details of thow
these changes to the circulation have some obvious model
variability, the signals from the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles are
consistent with each other.

A weak mean trough northeast of Hawaii is expected to meander to
the west southwest, moving west of the islands by midweek, with
the diurnal shower flareups indicated by both the operational GFS
and ECMWF models possibly indicating a disruption to the diurnal
cycle.

Kocin