Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
734 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Valid 00Z Thu Jun 30 2016 - 00Z Thu Jul 07 2016

Aloft, the 29/00Z deterministic ECMWF/GFS guidance were
fundamentally different in several key areas of the Pacific. At
the surface---they both reasonably depict a strong Subtropical
High---one that will strengthen, broaden and anchor along 35N
latitude. And for much of this forecast period.

The differences are embedded across the north central Pacific and
the ability of Arctic flow to 'phase' with mid-latitude flow in
the southern Bering Sea.

A second area is in the east central subtropical Pacific with the
evolution and westward migration of 500mb energy (day 4-5). Here,
the 29/00Z GFS offers an interesting solution---suggesting an
upper-level trough emerging invof 150W never entirely fills---and
eventually two cutoff systems break off and meander in the
Subtropical Pacific along 30N through much of the medium range
period.

A third area of concern is off the southwest coast of Mexico---and
'possible' formation of a tropical system embedded within the ITCZ
invof 120W (days 6-7) .
  
With these three areas 'in flux' after day 4 (3/12Z), recommend
using a blend of the 29/00Z ECENS/GEFS means to hold this pattern
in place but not totally commit to either of the deterministic
GFS/ECMWF solutions.

Vojtesak