Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
809 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2016

Valid 00Z Sun Jul 03 2016 - 00Z Sun Jul 10 2016

The Subtropical High and its strong Trade regime will continue to
be the prevailing sensible weather theme of this pattern.

The 2/00Z deterministic ECMWF/GFS provide an interesting and
realistic solution out to the end of day 5. And blend of both
should yield good results. The interesting part of these two
solutions --- a vertically-stacked high invof 39N 156W that will
move very little through time --- in fact through day 7.

The 2/00Z deterministic ECMWF & GFS guidance kept good continuity
with "TWO-E" in the tropical southeast Pacific. Once this
disturbance approaches the ridge's southeast flank--- the
solutions diverge on strength and track. Believe the TUTT cell
that eventually forms to the northeast of Hawai'i will become a
'blocky' feature and gradually absorbs "TWO-E" --- given the
deep-layered ridge to its northwest. This seems to follow a very
similar pattern to last summer. Please refer to the National
Hurricane Center for the latest information concerning "TWO-E". 

Behind "TWO-E"--- both deterministic solutions appear to generate
a much deeper disturbance--- migrating west of 130W invof 16N
latitude (@/around 8/00Z) and allow "TWO-E" to be absorbed by a
weak TUTT cell invof 26N 143W.

Beyond day 5, the pattern is becoming 'blocky' in several portions
of the Pacific realm---and the 2/00Z guidance seems to have
resolved the where and when. Namely, the unusual split-flow
pattern in the Bering Sea and downstream over north northwest
Canada.

Overall, the solutions that contain a blend of the deterministic
GFS/ECMWF and the ECENS ensemble mean can be carried into day 8
across the Tropics and the Subtropical Pacific.

Vojtesak