Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
811 AM EDT Sun Jul 03 2016

Valid 00Z Mon Jul 04 2016 - 00Z Mon Jul 11 2016

The Subtropical High and its strong Trade regime is the prevailing
theme in the central Pacific.

However, some subtle changes are anticipated during the day 5-6
period that will extend through the latter half of this forecast
period.

With the emergence of "Agatha" and "Blas" in the southeast Pacific
over the past 24 hours---would recommend leaning towards a
deterministic ECMWF solution for some of the details east and
northeast of the Big Island. This deterministic solution is
preferred today---based upon what is occurring north and west of
the Tropics (over the northeast Pacific). For the latest
information regarding the Tropics and these two tropical
systems---please refer to the National Hurricane Center.

Over the northeast Pacific, the 3/00Z deterministic ECMWF/GFS both
agree that what was 'TWO-E' (now Agatha) will approach the
Subtropical Ridge's southeast flank--- encounter a TUTT cell near
30N 140W and gradually become absorbed by this mid-level feature.
At the very least, the mid-level shear will 'lop-off' Agatha's
upper-half. By 8/12Z, the ECMWF carries a weakened surface low
near 22N 145W and the GFS an inverted surface trough. Both surface
solutions would suggest the shear is sufficient to distinguish
this as a TUTT-dominated system, though the GFS solution is a more
vigorous 'infused TUTT' cell solution versus the ECMWF. In either
case, should begin to have a decrease in the strength/persistent
Trades over the western half of the state, and a subtle wind shift
and increase in mid-level moisture (around day 6). Prefer the
'less-vigorous' TUTT cell solution details for now. 

Like yesterday's solutions, "Blas" will be migrating into a very
blocky pattern --- ie with a TUTT cell to its northwest and
supported in the low levels by a strong Subtropical High cell
(centered invof 41N 159W) by 10/12Z.

Vojtesak