Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
742 AM EDT Fri Jul 08 2016

Valid 00Z Sat Jul 09 2016 - 00Z Sat Jul 16 2016

The current Hawai'i forecast scenario appears to be 'in-line' with
the 8/00Z ECMWF and GFS solution for the Pacific basin. See no
reason to deviate from this---with these two solutions generating
additional tropical development (TD Four-E) --- and 'lining' up
this system invof/near 20N 140W by the end of day 6 (valid at
15/00Z).

With that much agreement---the forecast challenge between 20N &
30N latitude seems to be the sensible weather impacts and subtle
movements of the TUTT cell feature invof 26N 140W through the day
1-4 period. In general terms, its westward migration effectively
'blocks off' Blas and shears its upper-half to the northeast---but
maintains some surface reflection. Just what the surface
reflection looks like when Blas shears out and moisture, vorticity
etc tries to become infused into the TUTT cell still needs some
'definition'. Blending the two deterministic solutions for now may
work out---given what Agatha looked like may end up not being much
different than what Blas is expected to become (once infused in
this TUTT cell).     

Refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast
information and guidance concerning the tropical southeast
Pacific.

Vojtesak