Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
817 AM EDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Valid 00Z Wed Jul 20 2016 - 00Z Wed Jul 27 2016

The remnants of Celia offers some convection just north of the
state, but is in a sheared environment as per latest satellite
imagery. Circulation proximity should though fuel some island
showers given deepened moisture under a weakness aloft. By
mid-late week, trades rebound and the models also agree to settle
a shortwave ridge over Hawaii while another tropical system
approaches from the east. What is currently Hurricane Darby should
approach the Big Island by this weekend. This system is expected
to weaken to tropical depression strength by then based on the
latest National Hurricane Center forecast. This forecast tracks
Darby just to the northeast of the Big Island by Saturday evening.
There remains a modest guidance consensus to lift the circulation
on the north side of the state thereafter in response to a
weakness in the mid-level ridge. Considerable weakening appears
likely at this point as the compact low dissipates, but suspect
that pooling deeper moisture over the islands underneath the
system should fuel another period with some enhanced shower
activity.

Schichtel