Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
823 AM EDT Sat Aug 06 2016

Valid 00Z Sun Aug 07 2016 - 00Z Sun Aug 14 2016

Through day 3 (10/00Z) --- no issue with the last two 00Z cycles
(5/00Z & 6/00Z) regarding the outcome of events in the Subtropics
--- east of the Dateline.

The migratory storm track for "Howard's remnants" have been a
rather concise and accurate forecast---passing just north of
Hawai'i --- in east-to-west fashion  invof 22N latitude.
ECENS/GEFS ensemble means and their deterministic runs were in
decent mass field agreement --- though the qpf amounts and heavy
rainfall potential seemed to be 'downplayed' by the 6/00Z
deterministic ECMWF.

What remains of 'Ivette' is evidently in better agreement now---
with the 6/00Z deterministic GFS aligning with the 5/00Z ECMWF ---
and a storm track that remains south of 20N latitude. This poses
another heavy rainfall threat of the Big Island in the day 5-6
time frame.

At the moment---the majority of the model differences across the
north Pacific basin concern 'Omais' (invof the northern Marianas).
Prefer the 6/00Z cycle guidance --- a better depiction overall of
the system once it entrains into the mid-latitude westerlies. Too
many possible solutions downwind of the Aleutians to mention--- so
using a blend of the ECENS/GEFS is likely to yield the better
across the northeast Pacific after 12/00Z.

Vojtesak