Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
828 AM EDT Thu Sep 01 2016

Valid 00Z Fri Sep 02 2016 - 00Z Fri Sep 09 2016

...Major Hurricane Lester arriving this weekend for the Hawai`ian
islands...


A brief look at infrared satellite imagery this morning showed
tropical storm Madeline weakening, while moving south or away from
the Big Island, and Hurricane Lester, upstream over the Pacific
Ocean. The latest forecast track from the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center takes Lester just north and east of the islands
starting late Friday through the weekend. The operational and
ensemble guidance does not sway away from this thinking. The
potential track north of the islands should take the strongest
winds and bulk of the heaviest rainfall in this corridor but the
anticipated plume of tropical moisture associated with Lester
could still result in locally heavy rains, especially for the
eastern portion of the islands and Big Island. However, stay tuned
to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center for the latest on the
forecast track and possible impacts from Lester.

After Lester into the beginning of next week and mid-week, the
pattern returns to more typical regime of a building surface ridge
to the north and east of the islands and consistent, perhaps
moderate trades. However, operational global models do indicate a
possible upper level weakness arriving by mid-week from the east.
This could result in an increase in scattered shower activity for
the chain.


Musher