Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 819 AM EDT Fri Sep 09 2016 Valid 00Z Sat Sep 10 2016 - 00Z Sat Sep 17 2016 Typical trade winds and windward showers with easterly flow will remain intact through most of the weekend until Sunday. The overall pattern will then transition to an upper-level weakness developing overhead and possible tropical wave, with a surface wave/low, reaching the islands. The area of disturbed weather is south and east of the state and does not look terribly organized at the moment via IR satellite imagery. Either way, a rather impressive surge of tropical moisture and anomalous pws will consume the islands, especially the Big Island. The overnight operational gfs and its mean suggest standardized anomalies reaching 2 to 5 times above average for not only the end of the weekend/beginning of the week but lingering through most of next week. The weakness aloft actually becomes part of the westerlies and a trough axis extends from the west coast to the Hawaiian Islands. This locks in the above average tropical moisture content and could lead to more enhanced shower activity and a possible unsettled weak. Musher