Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
823 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Valid 00Z Tue Sep 20 2016 - 00Z Tue Sep 27 2016

Models and ensembles reasonably agree to show a surface ridge
settling to the north of the islands in a near moderate trade flow
pattern with limited moisture and windward showers into Thursday.
Deeper tropical moisture associated with the passage of the
remnants of Orlene and from the ITCZ may fuel more widespread
showers Friday-next Monday. This occurs as guidance digs a
moisture pullling mid-upper level trough to the NW and N of the
state. This is a feature to monitor given above normal forecast
spread and uncertainty. The ECMWF is more amplified with this
feature than most other guidance and is on the edge of the ECMWF
ensemble envelope. However, upstream mid-upper ridge amplitude
over the wrn Pacific by then does seems to support decent trough
amplitude.

Schichtel