Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 810 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 Valid 00Z Sat Oct 01 2016 - 00Z Sat Oct 08 2016 Surface high pressure initially settling to the northeast of the state will gradually weaken and eventually elongate westward along 30N latitude. Expect moderate to brisk trades into/through the weekend. Trades may weaken slightly thereafter but most likely still remain at moderate levels. By Saturday expect an increase in rainfall as moisture associated with Tropical Depression Ulika arrives. GFS/ECMWF runs both agree that a further increase in moisture, with precipitable water values of 2 inches or greater reaching at least as far north as the Big Island, may occur in the Tuesday-Thursday time frame. Current guidance anticipates the start of a drying trend next Friday. Also contributing to the rainfall potential will be a general weakness aloft across the region. Exact details of individual circulations aloft differ in the models and will be important in determining where/when rainfall may be enhanced. The small and weak scale of features aloft leads to low predictability for that aspect of the forecast. Rausch