Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
815 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 17 2016 - 00Z Mon Oct 24 2016

The anomalously strong upper high over the islands will gradually
weaken the next few days as moisture from the remnant tropical
wave near 145W reaches the island by the middle of next week.
Sensible weather changes over the next week will remain minor
under this regime with trades remaining mostly light. By next
Friday, models are in above average agreement in allowing a cold
front to move across the islands as another strong upper trough
develops over the Gulf of Alaska. Passage of the cold front should
be associated with increasing northeasterly flow. By early next
week, the 06z gfs and 00z ecmwf allow southern portions of the
amplifying eastern Pacific trough to close off and drift toward
the islands. However, only about 6 out of approximately 100
ensemble members agree, thus just a 6 percent probability of
occurrence. Would prefer to see increasing ensemble agreement or
some run-to-run continuity to raise confidence.

James