Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
809 AM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 30 2016 - 00Z Sun Nov 06 2016

Today's guidance is fairly consistent and agreeable with most
aspects of the forecast until differences in moisture late in the
period.  Through the weekend expect a showery pattern with trades
leaning to the brisk side, with a decent surface gradient to the
south of high pressure settling from around 35N toward 30N
latitude and an upper level feature dropping southward across the
state.  Precipitable water values may also be as high as 1.50
inches or so around the Big Island.  Next week still shows a trend
toward drier conditions and lighter trades as PWATs decrease to
around an inch and perhaps a little less at times, while the
surface ridge to the north of the state gradually weakens as it
drifts farther southward.  Also the eastward extension of the
strong upper ridge to the west-northwest of the state will
gradually drop southward toward the area.  Around days 6-7 Fri-Sat
there are some differences in moisture with the 00z ECMWF bringing
a pocket of higher PWATs into the area, especially the Big Island.
 GFS runs keep the best moisture farther south and the 00z GEFS
mean is at least as suppressed, while the 00z ECMWF mean has
slightly stronger ridging aloft than the operational run.  Thus
would favor going more toward the GFS/GEFS scenario at this time.

Rausch