Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
701 AM EST Sun Nov 13 2016

Valid 00Z Mon Nov 14 2016 - 00Z Mon Nov 21 2016

Models and ensembles reasonably agree that an energetic main storm
track across the Pacific mid-latitudes will force a lead cold
front toward the islands that gradually weakens and stalls just
north of the state over the next couple of days. Disrupted island
trades rebound Monday as post-frontal high pressure builds to the
north of the state. Additional flow amplification may provide
better support for a more robust front and showers push into
Hawaii heading into next weekend. Latest GFS runs offer more flow
amplitude and frontal push than most other guidance, but this
outlier solution remains plausible given upstream mid-upper level
ridge amplitude potential over the central Pacific. Weakening
trades in advance of the front Thursday should ramp up again later
next weekend with frontal passage as a new high sets up to the
north of the state.

Schichtel