Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
727 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2016

Valid 00Z Wed Nov 23 2016 - 00Z Wed Nov 30 2016

Strong high pressure to the north of the region is forecast to
meander in place and slowly weaken through the rest of the week,
keeping trades elevated. Precipitable water values should remain
near to below average which supports light to modest
precipitation, especially in windward locations but also into the
leeward side due to the stronger trades. By the weekend into next
week, the ensembles show an upper low developing to the east of
Hawai'i (around 145W) with another reforming around 175W-180. The
00Z ECMWF/GFS lie near the ensemble consensus by next Tuesday
while the 00Z Canadian and 06Z GFS were farther east near 160W
which would bring wet weather to the western islands. Prefer the
00Z ECMWF/GFS with their ensemble means by next week though the
deterministic runs were on the stronger/deeper side of the spread.


Fracasso