Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
811 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016

Valid 00Z Tue Nov 29 2016 - 00Z Tue Dec 06 2016

It remains the case that one surface high to the northeast of the
state followed by another high progressing from the northwest
along 35-40N latitude will support fairly brisk mean trades
through mid-late week. Lightest shower activity should be at the
start of the week when precipitable water values are lowest.
Values increase Tue-Wed as guidance brings in a pocket of moisture
from the northeast. However, guidance then shows a wetter pattern
as an upper low settles near/just south of the islands by mid-late
week. Amplifying upstream energy may dislodge the upper low but
likely pull more moisture northward through next weekend, and
could act to dig new unsettling mid-upper trough energy over/just
west of the state to prolong wet island conditions. Prefer a
composite solution of resonably well clustered model and ensemble
guidance at mid-larger scales. Smaller scale details are more
problematic at these longer time frames, but the upcoming pattern
could produce a period with heavy rainfall potential.

Schichtel