Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 727 AM EST Thu Dec 08 2016 Valid 00Z Fri Dec 09 2016 - 00Z Fri Dec 16 2016 Through the upcoming weekend... a moist southerly to southwesterly flow regime will remain intact across the state. A mid to upper trough aligned between 170w to 160w will gradually approach the Hawaiian Islands but draw north a continuous plume of tropical moisture with precipitable water values remaining at or above 1.5 inches. As a result expect an unsettled period with potential showers and locally heavy rain. As the upper trough advances downstream and moves past the islands early to mid next week... a bit more spread begins to show up with the global models. The ecmwf/ukmet are a bit more progressive in driving a rather strong frontal zone through the majority of the islands and shifting the entire plume of tropical moisture to the east. The latest gfs appears to be almost a day slower in not driving the trough/front through until Tuesday. The brief lull in the action will be temporary mid week... as another aggressive polar trough attempts to dig toward the northwestern part of the state on Thursday. These lower upper heights could steer another anomalous front toward Hawaii and increase moisture content again. Overall WPC followed a model consensus through the weekend... went a bit closer to the ecmwf/ukmet solution for early next week with some support from the gefs mean and a compromise of the data a week out. Musher