Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
715 AM EST Mon Jan 08 2018

Valid 00Z Tue Jan 09 2018 - 00Z Tue Jan 16 2018

Today's models and ensembles agree fairly well for the overall
pattern through the next seven days.  Over the next day or so
winds will turn more southeasterly ahead of a front supported by a
moderately sharp shortwave approaching from the northwest.  The
front will likely stall and eventually weaken to a trough near
Kauai mid-late week but a relative lack of moisture should keep
accompanying rainfall on the light side.  On the other hand the
Big Island may see somewhat more rainfall around
Wednesday-Thursday as the shortwave helps to draw a pocket of
moisture/shortwave energy close to the area from the southeast. 
After Thursday the southern periphery of the westerlies will
likely push the overall combination of shortwave energy and
moisture eastward away from the Big Island.  Upper troughing north
of the area extending into the weekend will bring another
relatively dry front close to the area at that time.  Expect the
front to lift back to the north as upper ridging builds in from
the east Sunday-Monday.  By next Monday there is some disagreement
over the exact location of surface high pressure.  A relative
majority of models/means would have a surface ridge axis just
north of the state, leading to light-moderate trades.  The 00z CMC
is farther south close to the islands thus yielding light low
level flow.  At this time would recommend a compromise among the
non-CMC solutions.    

Rausch