Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 725 AM EST Sun Feb 04 2018 Valid 00Z Mon Feb 05 2018 - 00Z Mon Feb 12 2018 ...Locally heavy rain possible this week... Deep troughing that had been meandering near the Dateline will move eastward and carry a surface cold front through the region starting early Monday over Kauai and Ni'ihau. A couple surface waves (even up through 850-800mb) forming along the cold front will lift northeastward through the islands as the cold front works its way down the island chain Tuesday/Wednesday. With available moisture well above average (1.50-1.75" precipitable water or about +2 standard deviations) the heavy rain and embedded convection will mean flooding will be possible in some locations. Cold air aloft will support snow at the Big Island summits. Models/ensembles show the cold front exiting past the Big Island late Wednesday or early Thursday as the upper trough finally swings through. Timing will depend on the evolution of the embedded surface waves. Northwesterly upper flow will follow in the wake of the FROPA as surface winds veer to northwesterly behind the front then northerly to northeasterly. A showery and breezy pattern for the islands will follow later in the week into next weekend with precipitable water values generally under one inch. 00Z GFS/ECMWF blended solution should suffice through the period., which would be near the 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean. Fracasso