Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
729 AM EST Tue Feb 06 2018

Valid 00Z Wed Feb 07 2018 - 00Z Wed Feb 14 2018

...A locally heavy rain/flooding and summit snow threat continues
today...

A wavy and deep moisture pooling cold front continues to move
slowly across the islands today with scattered showers and
embedded heavier/steadier rain and some thunderstorms as per
satellite imagery and radar/observations. Flash flood watches and
flood advisories are currently in effect across the state. Cold
air aloft also supports heavy snow at the Big Island summits where
winter storm warnings remain in effect.

Models and ensembles agree in showing some reinforcement of the
supporting mid-upper level trough into Wednesday into
Thursday.This will allow some enhanced showers to persist over the
state as the cold front exits past the Big Island, but the deepest
moisture will shift east of the state as the upper trough swings
through closes off.

Winds shift northerly/northeasterly behind the front and usher in
a period of limited showers and breezy flow for the islands later
week into the weekend with precipitable water values generally
under one inch.

Forecast spread and uncertainty increases into early next week,
but there is agreement in general that yet another amplified
mid-upper level trough will develop to the west-northwest of the
state, possibly leading to a closed low. Even a conservative
guidance composite without the closed low would allow a return of
lead deeper moisture into the state and renew the threat for
heavier rains/thunderstorms.

Schichtel