Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 730 AM EST Wed Feb 07 2018 Valid 00Z Thu Feb 08 2018 - 00Z Thu Feb 15 2018 ...A locally heavy rain/flooding and summit snow threat continues today... Showers with some heavy downpours remain possible today and a flash flood watch is in effect for the state. Cold air aloft continues to also support winter storm warnings for the Big Island summits. Models and ensembles agree to show some reinforcement of the supporting mid-upper level trough into Thursday. Deeper moisture continues to shift east of the state as the trough slides through and forms a closed low. Northerly breezy winds behind the system usher in a pattern with much more limited moisture/showers Thursday into the weekend. Forecast spread and uncertainty increases significantly early-mid next week as yet another amplified mid-upper level trough develops west-northwest of the state, possibly leading to a closed low. Recent GFS runs settle a deep closed low just west of the state, but recent ECMWF/UKMET runs remain much less diggy with supporting energy, surface system response, and heaviest moisture/rainfall potential. While the GFS is near the edge of the GEFS/ECMWF ensembles envelope of solutions, there are a decent amount of supporting members. The sharp wavelength of the amplified upstream mid-upper level ridge leaves the door open for either scenario, so there remains an uncertain threat for the return of lead deeper moisture into the state that has the potential to fuel a renewed round of heavier rains/thunderstorms. Schichtel