Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 717 AM EST Fri Mar 02 2018 Valid 00Z Sat Mar 03 2018 - 00Z Sat Mar 10 2018 From now into the weekend expect a continuation of moist southeasterly low level flow between high pressure to the northeast of the state and low pressure/inverted trough to the west. This flow along with one or more impulses aloft around the southeast periphery of an upper trough/low to the west may enhance windward-focused shower activity at times. Guidance continues to advertise a pattern change as an upper trough/low descends over the eastern Pacific early next week with cyclonic flow around this feature pushing drier air into the region. However during Tuesday-Friday models and ensembles diverge somewhat regarding the amplitude/depth of energy that elongates southwestward toward/over the islands. Over the past couple days the operational GFS runs have been on the deeper and more amplified side of the spread among models/means, but latest 00z/06z runs are still within the full ensemble spread. This evolution aloft keeps lower pressures just east/northeast of the state late in the week. Even though the 00z ECMWF holds the core of energy aloft a little farther north, it actually has somewhat deeper low pressure to the northeast of the state late Thursday onward albeit tracking farther to the northeast. On the other hand the 00z CMC/CMC mean become much flatter with the upper trough than other guidance. Through 00z Thursday the 00z UKMET leans toward the idea of somewhat stronger upper trough elongation than the means, so would recommend the 00z ECMWF or only a slight compromise with the means as the best single forecast at this time. Flow around central Pacific surface high pressure will promote northeasterly low level winds next week, with periods of mostly light to moderate rainfall given below normal precipitable water values. Rausch