Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 719 AM EST Wed Mar 07 2018 Valid 00Z Thu Mar 08 2018 - 00Z Thu Mar 15 2018 ...Heavy rain possible next week... Trades will be brisk for the next several days into next week as a very strong 1050mb high approaches the Dateline Friday but weakens as it moves past 170W next Monday to about 1030mb. Expect mainly light windward showers with some spillover to the leeward side on NE to ENE winds as precipitable water values slowly fall over the next couple of days. By the weekend, a trough will dig well to the northeast of Hawai'i around 40N and move eastward as the upstream upper ridge axis moves past 170W, which allows a weakness to its south to lift northeastward. The models/ensembles reflect this at the surface by next Tue/Wed with low pressure initially southwest of the region moving northeastward. Ensemble QPF is quite high for a 7-8 day lead time, suggesting the potential for locally or even widespread moderate to heavy rain. The uncertainty lies in location as they differ east-west which means the brunt of the rainfall could miss Hawai'i but it seems unlikely that all of it will given the upper pattern. Fracasso