Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
829 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018

Valid 00Z Wed Mar 28 2018 - 00Z Wed Apr 04 2018

Showers over the eastern islands is forecast over the next few
days as a surface boundary weakens and slowly decays by Thursday
night. The best chance for any additional locally heavy rains
should be along the southern coast of the Big Island.Slight
ridging aloft will set up by early Thursday, allowing drier air to
begin to mix into the region. The current run of the deterministic
models and their ensemble means continue to be in good agreement
with the next upper-level low/surface cold front to approach 
Hawai'i- amplifying along 170W by late in the week. Consensus
progs the  front approaching this weekend; yet model spread
suggests the confidence on on where and when shower activity picks
up for the western islands.

Low-level flow should be very light through mid-week, with
easterlies resuming by late in the week.  The GFS has continued
the trend of being  bit faster to move the front east, which
result in an increased threat of showers into the western islands
by next Saturday. At this time a compromise solution is favored,
which would bring at least a chance of showers into the western
islands by next weekend, but perhaps with the most widespread
activity remaining farther west.

Campbell