Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 822 AM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Valid 00Z Sun Apr 01 2018 - 00Z Sun Apr 08 2018 ...A Heavy Rain Threat... Guidance overall agrees that a closed low now northwest of the state will continue to eject away from the state this weekend and be replaced by additional dynamic systems into midweek and later next week. Forecast spread and uncertainty has increased with this subsequent series of systems, but a transition to an increasing wet pattern underneath into the islands remains on track. A favored model and ensemble composite spreads deepest moisture and forcing from the western islands this weekend then to the central and southern islands mid to later next week. Uncertain system specifics will ultimately determine the full extent that the trailing surface front now just northwest of Kauai will be reinforced and forced to the islands over the next week as lows develop and lift northeastward along the well defined boundary. Models and ensembles along with latest blended TPW imagery indicate that an anomalous plume (200% of normal) with upwards of 2" precipitatble water values will accompany the front. This deep tropical moisture will be available to repeatedly fuel heavy rain/convection along and ahead of the slow moving front along with an associated runoff threat. Schichtel