Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
830 AM EDT Mon Apr 02 2018

Valid 00Z Tue Apr 03 2018 - 00Z Tue Apr 10 2018

...Excessive Rainfall Threat...

Satellite imagery shows a well defined and wavy trailing front
settled just to the northwest of the islands in the aftermath of
support energies that have lifted well north of the state over the
past few days. Models and ensembles along with latest blended TPW
imagery still show an anomalous plume (200+% of normal) with 2+"
precipitatble water values with the front. This deep tropical
moisture will be available to repeatedly fuel heavy
rain/convection along and ahead of the front to enhance a local
runoff threat.

This front will be periodically reinforced and forced across the
islands as lows develop and lift northeastward along the well
defined boundary as supported by a series of shortwave trough
passages today/Tuesday, midweek and into the weekend. A favored
model and ensemble composite generally agree in showing this
steady diet of mid-upper level trough passages over and to the
north of the islands, bolstering forecast confidence in the
evolution of the wet pattern this week as deepest moisture spreads
from the western islands to the central and southern islands.

Schichtel