Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 808 AM EDT Fri May 11 2018 Valid 00Z Sat May 12 2018 - 00Z Sat May 19 2018 The surface trough currently over the state, disrupting trades enough to allow for some land/sea breeze flow, will dissipate over the next day as an upper trough passes by to the north and mid-latitude Pacific high pressure builds eastward. Thus expect trades to resume this weekend and persist with varying strength through next week. Guidance agrees that the tightest surface gradient/strongest trades should be during Sunday with gradual weakening heading into midweek. The lighter trades around Wednesday will be associated with some weak upper troughing that briefly develops over the area. Note that the 00z GFS and a number of GEFS members are a little deeper with the upper trough versus most other guidance, thus weakening the surface gradient a bit more than consensus. The 06z GFS has weakened the upper trough to the point of being a 00z GFS/ECMWF compromise. Later in the week expect heights aloft to rise and trades to strengthen at least to moderate levels as another surface high crosses the central Pacific. Anticipate generally windward-favored showers in the lighter half of the spectrum, given precipitable water values shortly decreasing to near/slightly below climo values that will continue into midweek. GFS/ECMWF runs and to some degree the GEFS mean indicate a pocket of higher moisture may reach the Big Island and vicinity from the southeast toward Thursday-Friday. The 00z ECMWF is faster than the GFS/GEFS mean with moisture arrival. Rausch