Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
826 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

Valid 00Z Sat May 19 2018 - 00Z Sat May 26 2018

Upper ridging and surface high pressure will rule the region for
the next few days. Trades will be relatively breezy through the
weekend into next week as a 1026-1027mb high pressure center
meanders around 32N. By late Monday into Tuesday, a trough will
dig along 165W north of the islands as an upper high near the
Dateline builds eastward. The 00Z GFS/UKMET and 06Z GFS were
farther southwest with the developing upper low (near 33N/145W) by
00Z/24 compared to the 00Z ECMWF/Canadian (which were near
40N/140W) with their ensemble members generally clustered near
their parent deterministic model. Trend has been farther northeast
in both the GFS/ECMWF while the Canadian has been most consistent,
but any significant affects should away from Hawai'i (such as
tapping the ITCZ). Precipitable water values are forecast to be
near to below average next week with occasional waves of moisture
that will enhance the otherwise light shower activity and modest
trades.


Fracasso