Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
821 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Valid 00Z Wed May 23 2018 - 00Z Wed May 30 2018

Guidance agrees that subtropical ridging will drift over Hawaii
during the next day or so with a surface high axis stretched
east-west along 32-36N. This will maintain locally breezy trades
that may increase Thu-Fri as the surface high bridges to the north
of the state. With a relatively stable air mass and precipitable
water values near average, generally light windward showers are
expected through the rest of the week through the weekend.

Models and ensembles solutions remain well clustered into early
next week. A favored composite offers below normal forecast
uncertainty and shows potential for pattern transition with advent
and approach of an amplifying mid-upper level trough and surface
frontal system to the northwest of the state. Slow system approach
would lead to weakening/veering/moistening trades and wetter flow
onset.

Schichtel