Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
842 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

Valid 00Z Sat May 26 2018 - 00Z Sat Jun 02 2018

An expansive surface high should stay stretched east-west along
30-35N, and subtropical ridging should remain settled over Hawaii
through Saturday.  The  relatively stable air mass and
precipitable water values near average should favor generally
light windward showers during the first half of the weekend. 

Model guidance remains fairly locked into the large scale
evolution of flow next week, which should feature a compact low
closing off just northwest of Kauai Monday/Tuesday.  The low, and
a surge of tropically infused precipitable water values, should
then slowly drift westward away from the Islands during the later
half of next week.  There is still some uncertainty with the
westward progression of the closed low, with the UKMET/GEFS
Mean/ECMWF Ensemble Mean showing a slower drift westward than the
GFS/ECMWF.  Also, the Canadian continues to be one of the farthest
east solutions and is one of the slowest models to initially close
off a low.   


Gerhardt