Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
826 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Valid 00Z Sat Jun 23 2018 - 00Z Sat Jun 30 2018

Models and ensembles remain in very good agreement in the central
Pacific with subtropical ridging elongated between 30 and 40
degrees north. This will maintain a typical trade wind pattern
with mainly windward showers expected.  A weak inverted 500mb
trough is expected to approach Hawaii from the east early next
week, with the 00Z EC mean slightly faster with the progression
and the operational ECMWF even faster, and the 6Z GEFS mean
indicating a greater break in the subtropical ridge by Tuesday.
The operational 6Z GFS is slightly faster than the GEFS mean and
thus represents a reasonable solution. This will enhance the
shower activity coincident with a rise in precipitable water
values in an otherwise fairly quiet weather pattern.  A sustained
moderate to brisk trade wind pattern is expected next week with
persistent surface high pressure to the north and east of the
state centered near 35 degrees north.

D. Hamrick