Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 828 AM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018 Valid 00Z Sun Jun 24 2018 - 00Z Sun Jul 01 2018 Models and ensembles remain in good agreement in the central Pacific with subtropical ridging elongated between 30 and 40 degrees north. This will maintain a typical trade wind pattern with mainly windward showers expected. By late in the forecast period, the EC mean is slightly more suppressed with the surface high pressure over the eastern Pacific than the GEFS mean and the EC mean also indicates more mid-level troughing to the northwest of Hawaii. A weak inverted 500mb trough is expected to approach Hawaii from the east early next week. Similar to yesterday, the 00Z EC mean is slightly faster with the progression, with the operational ECMWF close to its ensemble mean. The 6Z GFS is indicating more of a break in the subtropical ridge than the GEFS mean and ECMWF. This will enhance the shower activity coincident with a rise in precipitable water values in an otherwise fairly quiet weather pattern. A sustained moderate to brisk trade wind pattern is expected next week with persistent surface high pressure to the north and east of the state centered near 35 degrees north. D. Hamrick