Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
814 AM EDT Tue Jul 03 2018

Valid 00Z Wed Jul 04 2018 - 00Z Wed Jul 11 2018

Today's guidance shows good agreement with the overall forecast
aside from minor differences that develop aloft by day 7 Tuesday. 
Strong surface high pressure covering much of the Pacific will
support moderate to brisk trades for most of the period, leading
to a windward emphasis for rainfall.  Trades may slacken a bit
early next week as the surface high weakens somewhat.  There is
better than average consensus regarding enhanced moisture reaching
the area late this week into the weekend, originally associated
with Tropical Storm Emilia.  One northwest-southeast axis of
1.50-inch and greater precipitable water values will likely cross
the islands around 00Z-12Z Friday followed by another relative
maximum of similar magnitude that passes over the southeastern
half of the state late Friday-Saturday.  In this time frame expect
the enhanced moisture to promote some pockets of heavier rainfall,
most likely over the Big Island.  Rainfall should decrease in
coverage/intensity after Saturday as this area of moisture
departs.  There is some spread for exact precipitable water values
during Sunday-Tuesday with a most likely range of 1.25-1.50 inches
with some leeway either side of that.

Rausch