Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
812 AM EDT Wed Jul 04 2018

Valid 00Z Thu Jul 05 2018 - 00Z Thu Jul 12 2018

Agreeable model and ensemble solutions show fairly brisk trades
over the coming seven days due to strong high pressure covering a
large portion of the Pacific.  Expect strongest winds in the late
week/weekend time frame when the pressure gradient appears
tightest.  Rainfall will tend to favor windward locales but may
reach other areas at times.  The forecast is reasonably consistent
for enhanced moisture (originally associated with Emilia) reaching
the islands late this week and weekend.  Consensus still shows a
northwest-southeast band of 1.50-inch and greater precipitable
water values crossing the state during 00Z-12Z Friday followed by
a higher relative maximum late Friday-Saturday.  The one change in
guidance from yesterday is that the 00Z ECMWF tracks this second
maximum farther north than the latest GFS/GEFS runs and
yesterday's continuity.  In this time frame expect the enhanced
moisture to promote some pockets of heavier rainfall, most likely
over the Big Island and perhaps farther northwest depending on the
path of greatest deep moisture.  Expect a decrease in
coverage/intensity of rainfall after Saturday as this area of
moisture departs.  Then through midweek precipitable water values
should tend to be in the 1.25-1.50 inch range at most times. 
Aloft the guidance shows better clustering late in the period
versus yesterday.  The southern periphery of an upper ridge will
brush the area late in the week.  Then an upper weakness will move
in from the east during the weekend, followed by a ridge around
midweek.

Rausch