Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
835 AM EDT Fri Aug 24 2018

Valid 00Z Sat Aug 25 2018 - 00Z Sat Sep 01 2018

...Hurricane Lane expected to be closest to the Hawaiian Islands
today into Saturday with torrential rains and possibly high
winds...

...Unsettled weather is expected to linger through the weekend
into early next week...

Major hurricane Lane, located to the southwest of the Big Island
as of early Friday, continues to move slowly northward closer to
the main Hawaiian Islands.  The GFS continues to advertise a
northeastward track bringing the center of Lane very close to, if
not over, the central main Hawaiian Islands tonight into early
Saturday.  Meanwhile, the recent ECMWF has abandoned this right
turn scenario and begins to track Lane WNW away from the Hawaiian
Islands.  The official forecast calls for a compromise between
these opposing scenarios, bringing the core of Lane northward
closer to the Hawaiian Islands before pulling westward away from
Hawaii later on Saturday.  Locally extreme rainfall with strong
winds are likely over much of the region.  Please see the latest
advisory information from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

For the weekend into next week, the weakening cyclone will push
westward but its moisture source from the ITCZ will be pulled
across the islands on its east side with SE flow which will keep
precipitable water values high through at least the first half of
next week. Though coverage of heavy rainfall may be less than with
the hurricane itself, the threat will remain for much of the
period. Models/ensembles indicate an upper high will build into
the region by late Wednesday into next Thursday which will help
tamper the rain chances as trades become ENE again.


Kong