Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 830 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Valid 00Z Thu Oct 11 2018 - 00Z Thu Oct 18 2018 ...Some Heavy Weekend Rains... A quite deepened moisture axis along an old but convectively active and wavy front will continue to focus west of the islands over the next few days. This is occurring as drier air slowly works into the state as trades back to the east-northeast. In this pattern, lingering moisture will support some windward/mauka showers under a weakness aloft. Trades should weaken late week with frontal approach that will lead to more of a daylight sea breeze and overnight land breeze pattern over the state. Later, models and ensembles reasonably agree in showing deep closed low/trough development to the north of the state this weekend that will help drive that front underneath, increase instability and force onset of deeper moisture and heavier precipitation threat for the state. A composite guidance solution seems reasonable. Blended precipitatble water satellite loops currently show deep moisture along the front and already pooled in advance just to the south of the state. This offers potential to fuel some locally heavy downpours over the islands into this weekend that may lead to some local runoff issues. Expect post-frontal conditions will work arcoss the islands through early next week in the wake of the exiting closed low/trough with a drier airmass moving in. Schichtel