Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 722 AM EST Fri Nov 09 2018 Valid 00Z Sat Nov 10 2018 - 00Z Sat Nov 17 2018 A weak cold front or shear line to the north and northwest of the area will sink southeastward into the western islands later today and through the Big Island on Sunday per the latest consensus (with some timing differences between the models/ensembles). Rainfall with the frontal passage should be widespread but light to modest in amounts given only a brief (~24 hrs) surge in precipitable water values over ~1.75 inches as the larger moisture surge will be east of the area along 150W where a surface-850mb trough will pull up 2 inch PW air from the ITCZ. Winds will increase behind the front from the north to about 20-25 kts with higher gusts late this weekend then slowly subside and veer back to east-northeasterly then easterly next week. Heights are forecast to build over the area next week within a more typical trade pattern and light windward/mauka showers. By next Friday, the ensembles show troughing developing to the west of the area around 165W with a slow rise in PW values. The GEFS were more bullish than the ECMWF ensembles but overall a consensus supports something like the 00Z GFS. Fracasso