Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
715 AM EST Thu Nov 22 2018

Valid 00Z Fri Nov 23 2018 - 00Z Fri Nov 30 2018

Upper-level ridging will dominate the weather pattern across
Hawaii through much of the next week before things perhaps begin
to change by the mid to late part of next week. Surface high
pressure initially in place well northeast of the state is
expected to gradually weaken over the next several days,
accompanied by a gradual weakening of trades for Hawaii from 20-25
kt initially to 10-15 kt by early next week. By the middle of next
week, a number of solutions show the possibility for an amplifying
trough to develop in the westerlies to the northwest of Hawaii,
with a few deterministic solutions suggesting significant
amplification possible along with a rather deep surface cyclone.
Model/ensemble spread appears too high at this point, however, to
buy into any single solution by that time.

Ryan