Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
714 AM EST Sat Feb 02 2019

Valid 00Z Sun Feb 03 2019 - 00Z Sun Feb 10 2019

A broad mid/upper-level weakness initially in place across Hawaii
is expected for persist through the weekend, keeping scattered to
numerous showers in the picture along with trades generally in the
10-20 kt range. Trades will be weakest across the Big Island,
which should see the sparsest coverage of shower activity. Models
show good consensus that weak upper ridging should build across
Hawaii early next week, bringing a significant reduction in shower
activity as drier air spreads across the state. By the mid to
latter part of next week, models/ensembles continue to suggest
that a component of shortwave energy should separate from the
northern stream flow and amplify/slow as it approaches Hawaii. The
degree of amplification and whether the feature cuts off is
uncertain. This feature would likely bring an increase in moisture
and shower activity once again, with some potential disruption to
the trades possible if a significant surface wave of low pressure
is able to develop (as shown by the ECMWF/CMC).


Ryan