Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 717 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019 Valid 00Z Sat Feb 23 2019 - 00Z Sat Mar 02 2019 A strong upper high over mainland Alaska favors an upper low to its south, roughly along 150W to the northeast of Hawai'i next week. This will mostly maintain a drier NW flow with the moisture axis to the east of the area. Models and ensemble show reasonable agreement through the period. In the short term, a weak surface boundary just east of the Big Island through the weekend will continue to bring scattered and locally heavy showers to the Big Island and perhaps Maui. Drier air in place across the rest of the island chain should keep shower activity to a minimum amid light trades. By early next week the surface boundary should move east ahead of another front that may move through as it weakens on Sunday. This will be associated with a deep trough to the north that will close off as an upper low near 37N/157W Tuesday afternoon. This will sink southeastward next Wed/Thu, lower heights over Hawai'i, and push a cold front through. Ensembles show a brief rise in precipitable water and would expect an increase in showers over the island chain. Northwest to north winds will increase behind the front Wed/Thu before subsiding Friday as the system pulls eastward. Fracasso