Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 719 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 Valid 00Z Sun Feb 24 2019 - 00Z Sun Mar 03 2019 A strong upper high over mainland Alaska favors lower heights to its south, roughly along 150W to the northeast of Hawai'i next week. This will mostly maintain a drier NW flow with the moisture axis to the east of the area. In the short term, a weak surface boundary near the Big Island will continue to bring scattered and locally heavy showers over the eastern islands to perhaps Maui until it moves eastward Sunday. Drier air in place across the rest of the island chain should keep shower activity to a minimum amid light trades. By late Sunday, a deep trough will close off an upper low to the north of the region along 40N and the tail end of its associated surface front will approach the northwest islands. Models and ensembles show reasonable agreement through the period with this evolution except for the 00Z UKMET (farther southwest and closer to the island chain). The cold front will sink through the area and a brief rise in precipitable water would support an increase in showers area-wide. Northwest to north winds will increase behind the front Wed/Thu with a drying trend before subsiding Friday into Saturday as the system pulls eastward. Ensembles show yet another upper low possibly diving southeastward toward 30N/155W by the end of the period with rather low deterministic spread in the 00Z guidance. Fracasso