Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 729 AM EST Wed Feb 27 2019 Valid 00Z Thu Feb 28 2019 - 00Z Thu Mar 07 2019 Latest model and ensemble forecasts cluster quite well over the next week in a pattern with above normal predictability. Guidance agrees that a potent storm track from off eastern Asia northeastward to the Bering Sea favors an amplified and full latitude downstream mean mid-upper level ridge east of the dateline. A series of impulses dig to the lee of this ridge to focus mid-upper level trough energy along and to the north of Hawaii, with each offering likely closed low development just to the northeast of the state. Main trough/closed low and height fall effects exit the state today and then work through again Friday-Sunday, disrupting trades. Lingering moisture and shower activity clears the state today, but flash flood Watches remain in effect over Maui and the Big Island. A flood advisory remains in effect over the northern Big Island and a winter weather advisory and high wind warning is in effect for Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea summits. Expect only limited moisture and showers with the weekend system and even drier conditions are expected in the wake of each of these system passages in brisk northerly post-frontal flow. Schichtel