Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
830 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2019

Valid 00Z Mon Mar 18 2019 - 00Z Mon Mar 25 2019

Potent mid-upper level trough digging currently over and to the
north of Hawaii is forcing a moisture pooling surface cold front
through the state along with an enhanced chance of showers. This
has also prompted some high surf warnings along with small craft
and wind advisories. Post-frontal high pressure bridging to the
north of the state will support drier conditions within an overall
modest trade flow pattern through Thursday. A favored guidance
composite of reasonably well clustered model and ensemble guidance
indicates that approach of less amplified trending mid-upper level
trough energies Friday/next weekend may sag a shower focusing
front toward the western islands. This occurs as post-frontal high
pressure bridges to the north of the state, leading into an
increase in trade flow and moisture underneath into the state.  

Schichtel