Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 809 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019 Valid 00Z Thu Apr 25 2019 - 00Z Thu May 02 2019 Upper ridging just to the west of the region will slide over Hawai'i Thursday and east of the area Friday as it weakens. This will favor generally light windward showers amid a typical trade pattern. By the weekend, an upper low to the south of the Aleutians is forecast to drop southeastward to near 40N/160W around 12Z Sunday. The 00Z Canadian was displaced from the consensus. For next Mon-Wed, the upper low is forecast to wobble east-northeastward but trailing shortwave on its western side may move southeastward just to the north of the region, ending up as another closed low to the northeast of the state next Wednesday. The 00Z GFS/ECMWF and 06Z GFS along with most ensemble members showed this evolution, but with east-west spread. Preferred a solution between the 00Z GFS and ECMWF for now given the uncertainty in the upstream trough/ridge configuration. This was also between their respective ensemble means. At the surface, main upper low will carry a cold front to near Kauai on Sunday as winds veer from easterly to southeasterly. Precipitable water values will rise from below average to near and just above average next week (to about 1.25 - 1.50 inches) but deep tropical moisture should remain to the south of the area. Rainfall will increase in coverage but may likely only be modest in amounts. Front may then push across the island chain as the southern upper trough moves to the southeast, which would bring in northerly to then northeasterly flow in its wake and a drying trend from NW to SE. Fracasso