Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
814 AM EDT Sat Jun 01 2019

Valid 00Z Sun Jun 02 2019 - 00Z Sun Jun 09 2019

Today's guidance shows reasonably good agreement with the forecast
pattern over the next seven days.  Trades will fluctuate over the
course of the period, averaging out to moderate strength, while
showers will focus over windward locations. 

Consensus shows a gradual weakening of trades between now and
early Monday as the pressure gradient slackens, followed by some
strengthening into early Wednesday as mid-latitude high pressure
builds and moves eastward.  Trades will then weaken as the high
settles into the eastern Pacific and the front trailing from a
central Pacific storm comes into the picture--though remaining
well north/west of the main islands.

Guidance depicts a diffuse weakness aloft from this weekend into
the early week time frame.  Models/ensembles are similar in
suggesting that upstream energy will try to consolidate into a
better defined upper shortwave that crosses the main islands
around Wednesday-Thursday.  This feature may provide brief
enhancement of rainfall given some increase of instability and a
general model/ensemble signal for higher precipitable water values
during that time frame.  Toward Friday-Saturday expect some
ridging aloft to build toward/into the area (with typical spread
as to exact strength) while moisture decreases.

Rausch