Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 826 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019 Valid 00Z Sat Jun 15 2019 - 00Z Sat Jun 22 2019 Weak upper-level troughing is expected to slowly lift out to the northeast and away from Hawai'i this weekend as the upper level ridge axis builds in along roughly 30N. A stationary surface front to the north of the area should dissipate west of the state next week. Upper ridging is forecast by the ensembles to strengthen near 37N/137W midweek next week (500mb height anomalies near +2.0 sigma) which will eventually favor troughing to its west, roughly along 170W by next Thursday. The GEFS mean is a few hundred miles to the east of the EC mean regarding the placement of this trough axis, which may be the next storm system of interest to affect Hawai'i by the end of next week and beyond. This pattern should maintain modest trades at 10 to 20 knots that may increase slightly next week as the surface high strengthens to the northeast of the area. The main axis of deep tropical moisture within the ITCZ is expected to remain well to the south of the Islands, though waves of higher moisture will pass through (primarily the Big Island and Maui) next week which favors an enhanced of shower activity. Otherwise, relatively limited moisture should limit trade wind showers to mainly windward terrain Hamrick