Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
822 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

Valid 00Z Mon Jul 8 2019 - 00Z Mon Jul 15 2019

The ensemble means are in good agreement that a broad subtropical
ridge will be anchored in place just north of Hawai'i for the
beginning of the forecast period, and the remnants of Tropical
Storm Barbara will be making a steady westward progress over the
next few days.  By the time it passes south of the state early in
the week, it will likely take the form of an inverted surface
trough, with the 6Z GFS being slightly more pronounced with this
feature.  Towards the end of the week, the models are suggesting
that a col will be developing within the ridge, and the upper
level ridge builds to the northwest of the Islands by next weekend
around 35 degrees north.

In terms of sensible weather, a period of enhanced rainfall is
likely on Monday and into Monday evening as the remnants of
Tropical Storm Barbara pass to the south of the state, with PWs
expected to briefly rise above 2 inches.  The heaviest showers are
expected for the Big Island with some potential for flash
flooding, especially for east-facing terrain.  Otherwise, typical
trade wind induced showers can be expected at other times through
the upcoming week.

Hamrick