Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
830 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019

Valid 00Z Thu Aug 15 2019 - 00Z Thu Aug 22 2019

Upper ridging to the northeast of the area will translate/reform
to the northwest of the state next week, leaving Hawai'i in a
relative weak trough aloft. This will allow moisture associated
with a tropical wave near 130W to approach the region next week.
Overall the latest models/ensembles (06Z GFS/GEFS and 00Z
ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean) were in good synoptic agreement on the
somewhat complicated/blocky flow across the mid-latitudes and
North Pacific.

Trades will increase for the balance of the week with generally
scattered windward/mauka showers amid a near-normal precipitable
water environment. Guidance remains split with where to track the
tropical wave (EP94)--anywhere between south of Hawai'i to
northward along 150W. Ensembles seem to suggest taking the
moisture just to the north of the islands but confidence is low.
Next week, weaker trades are expected as upper troughing settles
in over the area.

Fracasso