Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
812 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Valid 00Z Thu Aug 22 2019 - 00Z Thu Aug 29 2019

An upper-level ridge initially centered northwest of Hawaii will
keep moderate trades in place through late this week with showers
in typical windward/mountain areas. Models/ensembles show broad
agreement that an upper-level low initially well northeast of
Hawaii== will drift southwestward through the next few days,
passing just north of Hawaii Fri-Sat. Sensible weather impacts
across the state should be relatively minimal with limited
moisture in place, but an associated weak surface trough and
strengthening surface high north of the state in the wake of the
feature may strengthen trades a bit (into the 20-25 kt range)by
late Sat into early next week. By the middle of next week
ensembles suggest the surface high should move away from Hawaii
with the pressure gradient and trades weakening. Some pieces of
guidance and ensemble members continue to show the potential for a
relatively weak system of tropical origin to pass south of Hawaii
by the early or middle of next week, although spread with respect
to this feature is quite high and confidence in any specific
solution continues to be low.


Ryan